The Evolution of South Africa’s Legal Services Industry: A Historical Timeline
By Rob Green, CEO, The GRM Group
I was chatting with the team at Nabii Intel (our brilliant researchers) and in the middle of discussing the future of lawyers charge out rates we quickly got into the history of law firm revenues.
This made me think of this article, so whilst sitting at the beach this weekend, I decided to plot it out – with a little help from the googlenet..
(My view whilst writing)
An Introduction
Close your eyes and allow your mind to wander for a moment. Take yourself back to the dawn of law in South Africa, where dusty streets in the Cape Colony echoed with the measured tread of robed advocates and hopeful clerks.
It was the chill of August 1791, and this was a colony both raw and restless. By candlelight, four men named Wagner, Vercuill, Colver, van Leeuwen huddled in a musty room, collars wilted by stress as much as summer heat. The ink on their hands was still wet as they pledged themselves not just to the law, but to the fates of distant monarchs and the enigmatic Company across the sea.
Outside their door, the city thrummed: merchants bartered in raspy Dutch, freed slaves pressed for justice, sailors brawled, and Malay exiles traded stories and smirks. Justice was not yet a place or a system, it was an idea, being hammered into something sturdy beneath the weight of every new case, every plea scrawled across a page.
Decades spun forward. By 1812, Cape Town had grown up. Picture in your mind John Merrington, starched collar inevitably askew, dodging donkey carts and ox-wagons as he dashed from courtroom to office. The city was alive; vendor cries and seagull shrieks blended with shouts from bustling legal clerks. Children played chase along freshly laid cobbles, while the domes of new courthouses shimmered in midday sun as testament to dreams of order in restless lands.
Leap across a century: the anxious 1950s, Johannesburg. Now, inside Chancellor House, a heavy brass plaque reads “Mandela & Tambo Attorneys.” Each dawn, Nelson and Oliver shoulder their way through a crowd that stretches down the stairwell, labourers in overalls, seamstresses in calico, miners still dusted with the gold of the reef.
In this city, hope has a scent, overripe fruit from the hawkers, dust from the pavement, and the wax polish on battered waiting-room chairs. Here, clients are not abstractions: they are mothers fretting over split families, fathers with the world’s sorrows stitched into their suits.
Mandela, tall and stately, greets each, sometimes solemn, sometimes breaking into that famous smile. Tambo works close beside him, brow furrowed over his diary and case notes, radiating quiet fire and resolve. In these cramped rooms, injustice is drawn in through every open window and chased out in every brief, every brave legal strategy, every handshake of thanks.
To the people on Miriam Makeba Street, Mandela & Tambo is the final fortress. Outside, dust and hope swirl in the sunshine.
But at this time, South Africa was a country living two histories at once.
Step out into the wide, sunbaked business district and witness a different world, gleaming with cranes, new office blocks, and café terraces splashed with the laughter of Johannesburg’s business elite. White-owned businesses boomed on the wealth of gold and manufacturing, new enterprises sprouting as quickly as the city’s skyline. Profits soared, trade flourished, and cocktail parties buzzed with the confidence of men whose suits were as crisp as their belief in the stability of the system that had built their empires.
The economy grew at a dizzying pace for the minority, fuelled by exclusion and the instrument of enforced cheap labour. The mining houses and banks counted profit in millions, while millions of their fellow citizens counted the cost in days spent locked out of opportunity.
In the streets and in the boardrooms, the business of law, and the business of apartheid, spun disgustingly parallel tales: one of accumulation and building for a privileged few, the other of endurance and resistance for everyone else. The law offices of the city, from the marble foyers of the Rand Club to the crowded stairwells of Chancellor House, bore silent witness to the chasm in South African life.
And yet, even then, those fighting for dignity and justice never lost faith in the rule of law – or in their power to change it.
Elsewhere, Bram Fischer stands in musty legal offices ringed by police. Advocate and Afrikaner rebel, standing stoic against fellow Afrikaners to defend Mandela during the Rivonia Trial. Common place are raids, confiscations, and the ever-louder footsteps of justice, either denied or, just sometimes, delivered. Bram’s chambers are ransacked, but still the work for justice for all, doesn’t stop; the papers may be scattered beneath boots, but the cause is never crushed.
Step outside these chambers and feel the rhythm of the cities: hawkers with their morning singsong on Fox Street, gold dealers watching the world go by, horses clattering on cobbles. Mothers shout beneath washing lines, anti-apartheid protesters chant as security police frown from the corners, and young clerks dart through traffic, arms full of heavy files and even heavier dreams.
Somewhere upstairs, a hopeful candidate drafts an urgent affidavit, the lamps flickering, while city lights glow like a promise beyond the trams and jagged city skyline.
And now, let your mind flash forward, because what began in those candlelit rooms and crowded offices has become a billion-rand force of nature.
Fairbridges, ENS, Bowmans, Cliffe Dekker, Werksmans, Webber Wentzel, and the many, many thousands of smaller firms: the legal industry now hums with the lifeblood of deals and daily disputes, brisk e-mails and urgent midnight calls.
The rule of law has become the highway on which ten thousand businesses and a million private struggles travel each year. Billions move, careers are built, businesses boom, businesses bust, families are rescued and reunited, deals are forged over acronyms and handshakes and the click of a mouse at midnight.
Still – after all these years – South Africans, from the Cape to the Kalahari, keep faith in the law and remain some of the hardest working and most adaptable people in the world.
They queue on the pavement outside courts at dawn; they revere the fierce independence of the Bar Council and the resolute dignity of the bench. Our streets and our boardrooms, even our WhatsApp groups, are alive with the law’s promise: that even in impossible odds, justice is a game worth playing, and worth winning, and that justice will, in the end, be served.
The “business of law” is built as much on hope as on paperwork and profit.
For all its billions, for all its modern gloss, the heartbeat of our rule of law endures in story: each wary handshake, each copy of the Constitution, each lawyer sitting up a little straighter as the judge enters, still echo the first, nervous words of those four men in August 1791, and the generations of South Africans since who have trusted that justice, though hard-fought, is always possible.
In Brief
Historical Foundations (1652-1806): Dutch Colonial Beginnings
The story begins in 1652 when Jan van Riebeeck arrived at the Cape, bringing Roman Dutch law to South Africa. This legal system would become the foundation of South African law.
The first formal legal practitioners were admitted on August 12, 1791, when four attorneys took their oath: Johan Frederick Wagner, Jacobus Vercuill, William Colver, and Jacobus van Leeuwen.
These early practitioners operated under strict regulations that already established a hierarchy between advocates and attorneys.
British Colonial Era (1806-1910): Institutional Development
When the British permanently occupied the Cape in 1806, they retained Roman Dutch substantive law while introducing English procedural law.
This created South Africa’s distinctive mixed legal system:
- 1811: The Earl of Caledon established the first circuit courts, bringing structured legal services to outlying districts.
- 1812: John Merrington established Fairbridges in Cape Town, which remains the oldest continuously operating law firm in Africa.
- 1827: The First Charter of Justice created the Cape Supreme Court, providing a formal framework for legal practice.
- 1834: The Charter of Justice provided the first comprehensive regulation of the legal profession.
- 1883: The Law Society of the Cape of Good Hope was established “for the maintenance and advancement of sound legal learning”.
The mid-19th century saw rapid expansion of law firms:
- 1853: W E Moore & Son (later part of Cliffe Dekker Hofmeyr)
- 1868: Bruce Wayne founded what became Webber Wentzel
- 1872: Shepstone & Wylie established in KwaZulu-Natal
- 1885: Findlay & Tait (later part of Bowmans)
Union Period (1910-1948)
The 1910 Union of South Africa unified the legal systems of four colonies under a single Appellate Division.
This period saw the establishment of many firms that would become household names:
- 1905: Edward Nathan & Friedland founded
- 1917: Nathan Werksman established Werksmans
- 1920: Spoor & Fisher founded, specialising in intellectual property
- 1922: Deneys Reitz (later Norton Rose Fulbright) established
Significantly, 1910 also marked when Alfred Mangena returned from England as South Africa’s first black attorney.
And in 1916, Mangena and Pixley ka Seme formed the first black law firm partnership.
Apartheid Era (1948-1994): Restriction and Resistance
The apartheid system severely restricted where black lawyers could practice through the Group Areas Act. Despite these horrific restrictions, important developments occurred:
- 1952: Nelson Mandela and Oliver Tambo established their partnership, becoming the first major black attorney firm with multiple partners. Located at Chancellor House, it served clients seeking redress from apartheid laws until closing in 1960.
- 1962: Zainunnisa ‘Cissie’ Gool became the first black female advocate.
- 1967: Desiree Finca and Navi Pillay became the first black female attorneys.
- 1977: The Black Lawyers Association was formed under Godfrey Pitje.
- 1979: The Legal Resources Centre was established by prominent lawyers including Arthur Chaskalson to use law as an instrument against apartheid.
Democratic Transition (1994-2018): Transformation and Consolidation
The end of apartheid triggered massive changes in the legal profession:
- 1998: The Law Society of South Africa was established as a national representative body.
- 1998: Major consolidation began with Bowman Gilfillan, Findlay & Tait, and John & Kernick merging to form Bowmans.
- 1999-2006: Edward Nathan & Friedland was sold to Nedbank, bought back by directors, then merged with Sonnenberg Hoffmann Galombik to form ENSafrica.
- 2013: Webber Wentzel entered an alliance with global firm Linklaters.
- 2014: The Legal Practice Act was passed to transform and unify the legal profession.
- 2015: Fairbridges merged with Wertheim Becker, combining firms dating to 1812 and 1904.
- 2018: The Legal Practice Council replaced provincial law societies, creating unified regulation.
Modern Era (2018-2025): The Current Landscape
Today, the South African legal industry is anchored by firms such as Fairbridges Wertheim Becker, which traces its roots back to 1812 and stands proudly as Africa’s oldest; Cliffe Dekker Hofmeyr, established in 1853; Webber Wentzel, founded in 1868; Edward Nathan Sonnenbergs (ENSafrica), which began in 1905; and Werksmans, whose pedigree dates to 1917.
These venerable firms, each with over a century of history, shape the corridors of power and commerce alike. Alongside them, an array of other prominent companies like Bowmans, Norton Rose Fulbright, Shepstone & Wylie, whilst some serve specialised markets with agility and local expertise.
Yet the true mosaic of South African legal life is completed by tens of thousands of smaller practices, whose presence reaches from the bustling metropoles of Johannesburg and Cape Town to towns and communities across all nine provinces, together weaving a rich, diverse profession at the heart of the country’s rule of law.
Key Insights from This Historical Analysis
- Longevity and Continuity: Many of today’s leading firms trace their origins to the 19th century, showing remarkable institutional persistence through massive political and social change.
- Transformation Journey: The profession evolved from complete racial exclusion under apartheid to today’s diverse landscape, though transformation remains ongoing.
- Geographic Expansion: From Cape Town origins, the industry expanded to Johannesburg (mining boom), Durban (commerce), and eventually all major centres.
- Specialisation Development: Modern firms evolved from general practice to sophisticated specialisation in areas like corporate law, intellectual property, and international transactions.
- Regulatory Evolution: From informal Dutch-era regulation to today’s unified Legal Practice Council, showing increasing professionalisation and standardisation.
Still Standing and Thriving
The culmination of this 373-year journey is a testament to how South Africa’s legal services industry survived colonial conquest, apartheid oppression, and democratic transformation to emerge as one of Africa’s most sophisticated legal markets.
Major Law Firm Name Changes, Mergers & Acquisitions (1900–2025)
- 1904: Wertheim Becker founded in Johannesburg
- 1917: N Werksman founded in Johannesburg (becomes Werksmans Attorneys)
- 1936: Sonnenberg Hoffmann & Galombik founded in Cape Town (later merges with Edward Nathan)
- 1940s: N Werksman renamed to N Werksman and Partners
- 1960s: Becomes N Werksman, Hyman, Barnett and Partners after successive mergers
- 1974: Hofmeyr van der Merwe & Botha established through merger
- 1978: Klossers name adopted (Cape Town)
- 1979: Buchanan Boyes & Sampson merge with Buchanans (Buchanan & Berman)
- 1987: Buchanan Boyes merges with Klossers (Buchanan Boyes & Klossers)
- 1992: Buchanan Boyes & Klossers and Thompson Smithers & Bradley merge (Buchanan Boyes Thompson Smithers Incorporated)
- 1997: Hofmeyr van der Merwe, Herbsteins, and Gihwala Abercrombie merge (Hofmeyr Herbstein & Gihwala)
- Late 1990s: Cliffe Dekker & Todd and Syfret Godlonton-Fuller Moore merge (Cliffe Dekker Fuller Moore)
- Merger with Silberbauers (Cape Town)
- Cliffe Dekker Fuller Moore name changed to Cliffe Dekker
- Y Ebrahim & Co merged with Cliffe Dekker
- Jeftha Twala merges with Cliffe Dekker
- Bowman Gilfillan formed from merger of Bowman Gilfillan Hayman Godfrey, Findlay & Tait, and John & Kernick
- 1999: Edward Nathan & Friedland sold to Nedbank
- 2004: Edward Nathan & Friedland buyback by directors
- 2006: Edward Nathan & Friedland and Sonnenberg Hoffmann Galombik merge to form ENSafrica
- 2013: Webber Wentzel alliance with Linklaters
- 2015: Fairbridges and Wertheim Becker merge to become Fairbridges Wertheim Becker
- 2016: Bowman Gilfillan Africa Group rebrands to Bowmans
- Smith Tabata Buchanan Boyes (STBB) formed by merges and association with Smith Tabata in Eastern Cape
- Cliffe Dekker Hofmeyr: Multiple mergers (name adopted after merger and DLA Piper affiliation, later ended)
Significant Law Office Openings & Closures (just a sample)
- 1970s–2020s: Legal Aid Centre launches in various cities (e.g., Cape Town, Johannesburg, Durban)
- 1980s: Bowmans opens offices in Sandton and Cape Town
- 2000s: Webber Wentzel expands Cape Town and Johannesburg offices
- 2010s: Large firms establish dedicated Africa regional hubs post-mergers (Bowmans, ENSafrica, CDH)
- 2010s: Law clinic launches at Stellenbosch, UCT, UKZN, Nelson Mandela University
- 2020s: Bowmans Johannesburg relocates to new headquarters
- 2020s: Market consolidation leads to closure of historic regional offices, especially in smaller cities
- 2022–2025: Firms open dedicated offices for tech law, and cross-border practice; some close pandemic-era satellite locations.
Revenue Growth
According to work by Grand View Research, South African law firm revenue has grown from negligible levels in the early 1900s to around R48.6 billion in 2024, with projected annual revenues exceeding R73 billion by 2030.
This industry growth accelerated after 1994 with market liberalisation, then boomed through the 2000s, reaching R2.7 billion USD in 2024 and forecasted at R4.1 billion USD in 2030.
Industry Revenue Timeline Highlights
- Slow growth until the 1970s (few million Rand)
- Steady increase through the 1980s-1990s (about R900 million by 1990)
- Post-apartheid surge in 1994, reaching R21.6 billion by 2000
- From 2000–2018, sustained growth to R36 billion
- Recent data: R48.6 billion in 2024, projected R73.8 billion by 2030
Annual Revenue Growth: South African Law Firms (1900-2030, Rm & Rbn)
The expected increase in South African law firm revenues, even in an era where AI and AGI promise cheaper legal services, will be driven primarily by the overall rise in legal demand related to economic complexity, regulation, cross-border activity, litigation volume, and new high-growth sectors, rather than by traditional billing for standardised work.
Key Drivers of Revenue Growth
Boom in Regulatory, Compliance & Cross-Border Transactions: African economies are becoming more regulated, and South Africa is a regional hub for financial, cybersecurity, corporate governance, and data privacy mandates. Legal services for compliance, mergers and acquisitions, fintech, and cross-border disputes are expanding rapidly.
Litigation and Arbitration: Increase in complex commercial disputes, large litigation, and international arbitration matters. Many are too high-stakes for DIY or commoditised AI solutions, so clients turn to top-tier firms.
Private Equity, M&A, and Foreign Investment: Global investment into South Africa means more high-value deals that require law firm oversight. These engagements bring sophisticated pricing structures and often demand multidisciplinary teams.
Adoption of AI, But Not Lowering Costs: While 79% of law firms use AI, only 6% pass the savings to clients, 34% actually charge more for AI-enhanced work, positioning AI as a profit multiplier rather than a way to make law cheaper for clients. This paradox ”doing more for more, not less”, means that efficiency gains are not yet translating to reduced client spend.
Rising Lawyer Rates & Limited Discounting: Practice areas involving strategic counsel, regulatory navigation, or high-stakes litigation still command premium pricing. Many firms use technology to increase their output capacity, not to lower client fees.
According to the LSSA, in 2024, revenue in South Africa’s legal industry is highly concentrated, with big and international law firms earning the majority, while medium, small firms, and sole practitioners share the remainder.
- Big/International Firms: 45% revenue, 21 firms (50+ attorneys)
- Medium Firms: 30% revenue, 186 firms (10–49 attorneys)
- Small Firms: 15% revenue, 4,145 firms (2–9 attorneys)
- Sole Practitioners: 10% revenue, 14,242 firms
Average per firm:
AI and the Future
Why AI Won’t Shrink Revenue (Yet)
AI tools reduce firm costs but not fees: Most South African and global firms maintain or even raise rates on core legal work, even as tech cuts internal costs, so realised firm revenue grows.
Premium Billing for “Augmented” Work: Clients sometimes pay more for services involving faster, more sophisticated AI-powered research, analytics, and deal structuring.
Demand Outpaces Tech Savings: As legal, business, and geopolitical risk grows, more clients want expert guidance. This volume and complexity offset any supposed shrinkage from tech-driven commoditisation.
Medium-Term Outlook
AI makes high-volume legal tasks cheaper and more accessible for basic matters and SMEs, but the overall addressable market for premium legal services is expanding faster than cost savings for clients.
As a result, total legal revenue is growing, even as some lower-tier work becomes more affordable. The industry expects this revenue growth to continue until generative AI or AGI reaches a point where it can fully automate strategic, judgment-intensive legal work, something not expected until well after 2030.
AI Adoption impact on SA Law Revenues
Here is a sensitivity analysis showing how South African law firm revenue (in Rbn) is projected to change as AI adoption rates increase:
Sensitivity Analysis: AI Adoption Rate vs. South African Law Firm Revenue (2030, Rbn)
- Low AI adoption (few efficiency gains): Revenue rises slowly, plateauing near R50 bn by 2030.
- Moderate adoption (balanced tech, expanded services): Highest absolute growth, with new market access and efficiency driving revenues to -R74bn.
- High adoption (advanced tech, heavy commoditisation): Revenue climbs to -R90bn, but efficiency and automation temper growth as basic services become cheaper—advisory and cross-border work drive further increases, but the curve flattens.
This chart demonstrates that aggressive AI adoption unlocks short-term growth and market expansion, but also introduces diminishing returns in core legal services, pushing firms to specialise and add higher-value offerings to sustain revenue growth.
Using various online resources we found these numbers:
With major AI adoption, fewer lawyers are needed, and average earnings decrease significantly, while minimal AI adoption means the profession grows steadily with higher average earnings per lawyer.
Does this bring into question the appetite some law firms seem to have for adopting tech?
Are they potentially destroying themselves from within? Maybe a question for another time….
THE FUTURE
Here are some bold predictions about what will happen to law firms, their revenue, the impact of AI and AGI, lawyer earnings, job prospects, and more in the next decade for South Africa and beyond:
Law Firm Structure & Revenue
- The vast majority of traditional law firms could shrink or merge, while “super-firms” become tech-driven, international legal solutions hubs.
- Sole practitioners and micro-firms could boom in number, but most will operate as low-overhead, remote legal service providers. Their aggregate revenue will rise, but per capita earnings may drop, with “gig law” platforms routing basic work to them like Uber routes rides.
- Platforms like umbiie.com will lead the way in being the platform that works for the lawyer, especially as shared revenue becomes the norm.
- The largest firms will concentrate wealth, with elite practice groups billing for strategic, cross-border, and crisis advisory services, earning more revenue per lawyer than ever before, however, there could be a large amount of upheaval in lawyer remuneration as current models become increasingly unsustainable.
AI/AGI Impact on the Profession
- By 2030, junior legal roles such as researchers, paralegals, and clerks could be reduced by up to 80%.
- AGI will handle most document review, basic contract drafting, case law research, due diligence, and compliance work.
- High-value legal jobs will pivot toward advisory, negotiation, courtroom advocacy, and ethics, everything requiring nuanced human skill.
- Government-supplied, tech-based legal solutions will make core legal procedures “free for all” (like South Africa’s Legal Aid, now extended and automated).
- Legal insurance products and subscription-based models become the norm, with monthly legal “cover” like medical aid.
- The “billable hour” will die entirely, replaced by outcome, or subscription-based pricing, especially for routine matters.
Personal Wealth, Lawyer Jobs & Earnings
- Senior partners and leading commercial/IP litigators could see incomes soar above R10m/year, especially in global M&A, IP, and transnational litigation.
- Many mid-tier firm owners and practitioners will see flat or declining real incomes, unless they pivot to hybrid consulting, legal tech entrepreneurship, or highly specialised niches.
- Lawyers with strong tech, business, or international skills will become “super-consultants,” acting as both legal, regulatory, cyber, and policy advisers.
Everything Else Could Get Wild!!
- AGI-powered “virtual judges” could start to render binding decisions in small claims, divorce, and even some criminal matters, based on case databases and live streaming evidence. The first attempts would be controversial, but faster and (eventually) fairer than human judges.
- The big Audit Firms could lead Legal services in merging with other professional services (accounting, consulting, tax, and compliance) into one-stop digital platforms.
- Environmental, cyber, “e-law,” and international law sectors explode, driven by climate regulation, global trade changes, and e-crimes. Over half of all new legal jobs in 2035 may be in fields that barely existed in 2025.
- Law school’s transition to training for complex advisory, tech, ethics, and “soft power” advocacy, coding skills become mandatory for graduation.
- Career resilience and personal branding become almost as important as legal knowledge; reputation networks, “LinkedIn Law,” and crowdsourced lawyer ratings dominate client selection.
- Legal software developers, not always qualified lawyers, could become among the best-paid professionals in the sector.
The wild legal world ahead is harder, faster, and more competitive, yet potentially more democratic, transparent, and affordable.
South Africa will see law becoming both a “high-tech” and “high-touch” game, divided sharply between super-elite winners, lean gig workers, and millions of tech-empowered citizens taking justice into their own hands
Nabii’s Projections:
If all current trends, including explosive AI/AGI adoption, industry consolidation, and “gig economy” growth, are realised, then we may well see an extremely different industry in the coming decade:
Number of Lawyers in South Africa (2035)
- The rate of new law graduates remains steady, but attrition rises as routine legal work is absorbed by AI/AGI.
- Sole practitioners and micro-firms continue to boom (supported by legal tech and gig platforms), but total lawyer numbers plateau or decline slightly due to automation in mid-tier and large firms.
- Estimated total: 35,000–40,000 practicing lawyers (down or stable compared to 2025’s 33,929).
Average Yearly Earning Per Lawyer (2035)
- Top-tier specialists, partners, and legal tech entrepreneurs earn record-breaking amounts (with some crossing R5–10 million/year).
- The average drifts lower, as most lawyers compete on tech platforms, facing price compression and more competition, especially for routine legal work.
- Entry-level lawyers: R600,000–R900,000 yearly.
- Mid-career lawyers: R950,000–R1,400,000 yearly.
- Partners/specialists: R2,000,000–R8,000,000 yearly.
- Estimated overall average yearly earning: R950,000–R1,350,000 per lawyer (reflecting both top earners and lower paid gig economy participants; inflation adjusted).
If average billable hours fall by 30% in South Africa, and earnings drop proportionally, then the projected average yearly earning per lawyer in 2035 would be:
- R840,000 per lawyer (Rm)
- R0.840 per lawyer (Rbn)
This reflects a significant reduction from the original R1.2 million average, with highest impact on lawyers primarily relying on hourly billing
Key Factors Affecting These Numbers
- AI should automate up to 50% of all documents, research, and compliance work, allowing lawyers to handle higher volumes but share less in transactional revenue.
- Gig platforms distribute jobs widely, but lower per-job pricing is standard.
- Law will be more accessible, and more competitive; niche and advisory earnings are high, but average earning growth slows.
- Inequality in lawyer earnings will widen dramatically, with top partners/consultants doing far better, but “median” or “average” lawyers seeing little real income growth.
In 2035, South Africa’s legal profession will see roughly 35,000 – 40,000 practicing lawyers, and average yearly earnings will hover around R1 million, with massive dispersion and volatility depending on specialisation, tech adoption, entrepreneurial skill, and market demand
Final Thoughts
By 2040, we believe South Africa’s legal industry will be profoundly shaped by AI/AGI, digital platforms, and shifting market demands.
Law Firm Models and Market Structure
The majority of law firms will be small, technology-enabled, and hybrid in their work arrangements, with ultra-low overheads and often operating remotely or virtually.
Most routine legal work will be delivered by a mix of platform-driven gig lawyers, legal technicians, and AI tools; large, traditional firms will shrink even further, while high-performing boutique and elite consultancies thrive on specialised, cross-border, or crisis work.
Lawyer Numbers
The total number of practicing lawyers may decline further as automation replaces some job segments but will stabilise in the range of 30,000 – 35,000 active attorneys by 2040, down from current levels due to attrition in routine roles but supported by legal service expansion via technology.
Micro-firms, sole practitioners, and specialist consultants will make up the majority, but a sizeable cohort will work as legal technicians or blended paralegal/AI supervisors.
Earnings and Wealth Distribution
Average individual earnings for lawyers will remain in real terms between R900,000 and R1,100,000 per year – but with massive variation depending on role, sector, and skills.
Top partners and legal tech entrepreneurs may routinely earn R5m – R10m+ per year by tapping into globalised markets, while high-volume gig lawyers (handling basic matters) may earn as little as R300,000 – R500,000 annually.
The death of the billable hour, rise of subscription, outcome, and cloud-based legal pricing will depress average earnings for routine work, but increase premium earnings for those who can scale personal brand, tech, and network reach.
Inequality among legal professionals could widen: a small number of “super-lawyers” and teams will command outsized rewards due to digital leverage and niche expertise, while average earnings for most lawyers will plateau or shrink in purchasing power unless they reinvent their business model.
Key Trends
- “Hybrid” professionals will dominate – lawyers with skills in digital policy, cyber, e-law, environmental law, and international trade.
- New legal careers will emerge: Legal AI supervisors, online dispute adjudicators, justice data analysts, and law-tech partnership managers.
- The profession will be both leaner and more democratic, with a much broader client base but far more competition and volatility in earnings.
Summary Table: Possible South African Legal Industry in 2040
By 2040, South African lawyers and law firms must be adaptable, entrepreneurial, and digitally literate to thrive, otherwise, much of their current market could be absorbed by technology, new professional categories, and alternative providers.
My final, final thoughts
From candlelit beginnings in dust-swept Cape Town, through the ox-wagon bustle and gold-rush boardrooms of Johannesburg, the South African legal professionals have always punched above their weight on the global stage..
Through colonial power plays and apartheid injustice and systemic corruption, lawyers here stayed rooted in the streets – fighting, shifting, growing. In the 1950s, white-owned businesses soared, shiny new buildings went up, but justice was hammered out on stairwells and park benches by advocates who believed in simple dignity and a brighter, more inclusive future.
And now, facing the tides of artificial intelligence, billion-rand budgets, and relentless change, the South African legal industry stands bold.
Who would have thought the borrowed robes and trembling hands of 1791 would become this bustling, resilient, million-strong mosaic – fiercely wired into every crisis and every major deal?
Praise must always be given to those visionaries and founders who laid the foundation stones of South Africa’s great law firms, and to the leaders who have grown these enduring institutions into the behemoth they are today. Giants like Michael Katz and countless others have not just practiced law, they have built organisations that launch careers, nurture thousands of professionals, and create opportunities for communities nationwide.
These pioneers have steered firms through transformation and change, setting standards of excellence, integrity, and innovation. The businesses they built have shaped the landscape, created hundreds of thousands of jobs, and formed the backbone of an industry that stands as a pillar of justice and economic growth. As new leaders emerge in the decades to come, let us never forget those who came before, their ambition and their fierce commitment paved the way for all who now have the privilege to serve, build, and thrive in the legal profession.
And one truth persists, louder than ever: for all your challenges, for all your stories, this country still trusts the rule of law – and whilst that remains, legal business will continue to flourish and careers will grow.
That faith will keep you all moving, forging hope, order, and transformation, well into the uncertain promise of 2040 and beyond.
Get in touch rob@thegrmgroup.com
(And a little walk after writing)
